Predicting the Unpredictable

Before the storm arrived on scene, the meteorologists predicted no more than moderate amounts of rainfall. Light to moderate, actually.

Certainly, not enough to worry well-prepared residents living near the burned out mountainsides left by LA's Station Fire. After all, they'd survived a punishing series of storms just a few weeks before with far less than the predicted damage. And now they had concrete barriers and walls of sandbags, not to mention large debris basins dug by civil engineers, all intended to capture and channel the flow of mud and rocks safely away from homes.

No reason to worry, then. On the local news, reporters interviewed confident residents and officials. And then moved on to other, more newsworthy things, like predicting (again) the death of the health care bill.

But the rains came. And at first they were gentle, as predicted. But then, as if giving LA LA Land the finger just before leaving, the storm unleashed a fearsome fall of water and wind that send hills sliding and boulders rolling. When the rain eased, the damage was everywhere. No one was injured, but homes were lost and lives changed.

Interviewed after the storm, the Chief of the LA County Fire Department, said, "I think it's imperative that everybody understand the unpredictability of predictions."

Thanks, Chief. I feel slightly more optimistic now about death and taxes, the 'Big One', near-Earth asteriods, and the 2012 elections ...