Poetry Break: The Prez Is On The Road

The Prez is on the road
He's heading out to please
He's meeting the G20 heads
... but especially the Chinese

Russia's important too
We don't want Medvedev
(or Putin)
... to be blue

And Gordon Brown?
He's our staunchest friend around
(Looks like Terry Jones though
And The UK's nearly out of dough...)

Let's wish the Obamas all the best
this trip is important
A real hard test
Some in the press will be watching the Prez
And the rest Michelle's dress ...

Monday Morning Quarterbacking

It's the Big Game, folks, the one for all the money.  Even more than that, it's the game for survival. 

Ford's earned a 'by', this round, but GM and Chrysler are on the field.  Unfortunately for both it's not a modern field, rather a muddy throwback to the 'golden' age, and the players are caked in the stuff.  And beneath that muck the players are tired and scared.  

GM's quarterback has been kicked off the team by the new coach and Chrysler has been told to merge with another team or else lose its franchise.  The fans in the stands are dwindling. Those that are left are without hot dogs, beer, or even souvenir programs. 

The Cheerleaders have long since left the sidelines.

We are still in the 4th quarter though, and the fat lady has only just started to warm up with a warble or two, backstage.  There's time for a patented Elway two-minute miracle, a drive to victory against all odds. There's time, but barely.

Whatever the outcome of this contest, it may be time to think about starting some new franchises, maybe a whole new league ...

Friday Frights

It's been a busy week, and it's not over yet.

Colorado blizzards, Fargo floods, Alaskan volcanoes, North Korean missiles, and 'imminent' terrorist attacks. 

What the heck, is it Armageddon already?

Well, you'd think so from the overwrought reportage on the cable news channels, particularly FOX (of course) this Friday am.  If you tuned in to any of this stuff, or better yet, browsed it via 'Direct TV News Mix', you would be forgiven for shoving your head in the nearest hole in best ostrich mode.

With the stock market climbing upwards over a thousand points in the last week (even given today's backpedalling), and with President Obama and crew making (mostly) the right moves, I guess the US press is suffering from good news overload and just can't bear it.  Hence the glee with which they deliver the bad stuff.

Witness their apparent desperation to find the cloud cloaking the silver lining today.  I actually had to laugh when I heard a commentator bemoan the horrible rise in gas prices to over $2 per gallon.  Surely they know that prices are rising with the stock market, on expectations the economy will get better sooner  - and thus need more gas and oil.  Rising fuel price (to a point, 4 bucks plus was criminal) is a good news indicator.  The financial news wonks MUST know this and are just being curmudgeonly as a point of professional pride.

Or they are brainless idiots who only read what's put in front of them. 

Or both.

Forget TGIF, I can't wait for Saturday ...

The 9.5% Solution

As everybody must know by now, California is in a world of budgetary pain, hemorrhaging to the tune of $42 billion in deficit.   And, as those of us who live in California know, the majority of us voted to allow a temporary increase in sales tax to help compensate.

I say the majority voted for this increase, but it's better to say the majority voted for it out of fear of NOT voting for it.  Dire calamities were predicted, alarms raised, the Governator's jaw clinched - muscles working in best movie angst mit determination mode.

So, on April 1, 2009 (so appropriate), the sales tax will increase by 1%.  Here in greater LA that means about 9.5% for the city and most surrounding communities. Ouch.

And it makes perfect nonsense, doesn't it?  Just when the economy needs more people to get out there and buy, buy, buy, we go and increase the cost of that activity.  Just when we need to stimulate jobs so that the state can collect increased business and income taxes, we dampen the business prospects.  In the movie biz, that would be called a plot hole, a failure of continuity, and possibly a flop akin to 'Heaven's Gate'.

I suppose only time will tell.  The tax increase is 'temporary', after all.  

Ya, rechts.

Bouncy, Bouncy

What goes down must come up, right?

After falling off an economic cliff like Sherlock Holmes over Reichenbach Falls, the DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P have rebounded from apparent doom - just like that beloved fictional detective.

The question of the moment - at least for the cable news outlets, is whether this is a true recovery or some sort of dead cat bounce, a kind of rebounding fakery designed to peel off whatever shekels we haven't yet committed to our 401(k)s.  A sort of slow-motion Madoff scheme, kinda.

Stock pariahs like AIG and Fannie Mae have roughly doubled from their lowest points.  That only means just under a buck and a half and 85 cents per share, respectively, but, hey, a doubling is a doubling.  If you (I say you but I mean 'me') had been smart enough to buy, say, 1 million shares of each (must think big), you (and when I say you I mean 'I') would be looking like a genius right now.  Not that you (I) had a million bucks to invest, just sayin'.

But lest you start kicking yourself (myself) about missing the boat on a big rebound, take heart in the state of the economy.  It truly sucks.  Based on any measure of reality, this stock 'surge' won't accomplish it's mission and will soon retreat, tail dragging in defeat, back to DOW sub-7000 waters.

If, however, the rebound is a real recovery, and the stocks surge to new heights, you (I) have my (my) permission to kick your (my) own butt.

Bouncy, Bouncy!

Oh, Obama! (Media Moments)

Number 44 is always in the news these days...

Leno's Special Olympics -  You have to wonder about the President's (or his staff's) wisdom in going on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.  True, Leno is a fan and was always going to play nice, but c'mon, a sitting President on a talk show?  What about equal time for the other networks?  Why give just one the ratings boost?  Payback?  What about inadvertent gaffs?  Was the public promotion of policy worth the risk?  It's enough to make you think the Prez's office is run by the Special Olympics.  Oops, my turn to apologize.  Sorry.  Good to know Obama bowls, though.

Stunning Bonuses - On the Leno show, Obama pronounced himself 'stunned' at the bonuses given out to AIG.  Too bad, then, it came out later that his own team created the loophole that allowed the bonuses in the first place.  But taking a long view, which the President espouses at every turn, makes it pretty clear the loophole was a reasonable compromise, so why act 'stunned'?  Maybe it's because the President didn't know what his team had done until the fecal matter hit the rotating metal cooling device?  Or maybe it's because he never expected those sleazy execs to use the loophole?  If so, maybe he should spend a little more time in staff meetings and a little less on TV...

Salaam, Iran - Can we ever do anything to please the leaders of Iran?  Our President graciously reaches out to the Iranian people with a video message of hope and engagement, and he gets bum reviews from the Ayatollah.  Something or other about actions speaking louder than words.  Well, as disturbing as this rebuff is, Iran's supreme leader might be forgiven his skepticism given he's experienced the past eight years with the Bush administration.  (If we were jaundiced about our leaders, how do you think he felt?).  It's far too early to know whether Obama's message is a genuine attempt at engagement, or political window dressing, as the Ayatollah fears.  It's our hope, though, that it's the genuine article, and better times are ahead.

Our President has been very busy these days.  And we, the people, are generally happy to see him out there gettin' 'er done.  There will be rough spots which will draw criticism (ahem), but by and large it's better to be open and talking (even on Leno) than closed and scheming (the Cheney plan).  Roll on 44!

Babble-On 15

A mid-week look at a few items floating through the ether ...

Bonus Babies - Oh the horror!  AIG, beneficiary of public largesse to the tune of 170 billion (or so), paid bonuses to some of its executives. About 165 million (or so). The company claimed the bonus payments were regrettable but legally required.  A contract is a contract, after all.  The ensuing furor in the halls of government, gleefully reported by a press scared by the recent trend towards a little more positivity in the public mood, has consumed the media outlets to the near exclusion of all else.  The latest news reports that some of the bonuses were being returned.  If true, this might catch on.  Perhaps we could get some of the Bush Administration to return a little of their pay...

Rocket Bat - On Sunday a humble little bat became the fastest winged mammal in history.  That is, it did if it was able to hang on to the Shuttle Discovery's external fuel tank long enough.  NASA's technical boffins noted the Free-tail Bat on the tank before the launch but thought it might just fly away.  They should let those boffins watch more nature programming, because they were wrong - it didn't.  Sadly, more bat-savvy specialists consulted after the fact believe the bat couldn't have survived the ride.  Personally, I'd like to think the little guy (or gal) had The Right Stuff, and not only survived, but flew higher, farther, and faster than any bat had flown before...

The Waters of Baghdad - Are not so good, according to a story posted on Yahoo News today.  Apparently, the drinking water pulled from the Tigris river has been polluted for a long time, and it hasn't improved since the US invasion and occupation.  Six years after the US entered Baghdad the water supply is no safer and the people who can afford it resort to bottled water to avoid the risk of disease.  I wonder if Haliburton has the bottled water concession?  Probably a no-bid contract.

Enjoy the rest of your week.  If you run into any difficulties you can take a tip from that little bat gamely hanging on to the Space Shuttle.  Whatever your problem is, get a grip and hang on for dear life...

Being Green - Still Not Easy

A commentary on things green this St. Paddy's Day, March 17, 2009 ...

Kermit returns? - A couple of evenings ago we heard a sound from outside our Los Angeles home that cut through the sonic TV fog and riveted our attention.  Rib-it, Rib-it, Rib-it.  A frog.  Outside our house. In Los Angeles.  In the eight years we have lived in our current home we have never heard a frog, despite having a semi-functional pond for all of that time.  Populations of frogs and their toad cousins have declined nearly everywhere outside the tropics, for reasons that are not entirely clear but may have to do with environmental change and that fashionable bugaboo, global warming.  Kermit had it right- it's not easy being green.  Perhaps that lone froggy voice in the night is a sign of hope, or perhaps it's the last cry from a disappearing creature.  I hope not, for as much as I love the Muppets' Kermit, the real thing is infinitely greener.

Ireland, a paler shade of green -  The global economic 'whatsis' has worked it's poisonous will on the 'Celtic Tiger', thanks to a property investment boom that set up millions of unlucky Irish for economic failure along with the housing and credit busts.  The 'Irish Miracle' that brought jobs and unprecedented prosperity to the Emerald Isle from the late 1990's into early 2008, is effectively over.  Not to worry, though. According to a story on NPR this morning, the Irish are managing the sudden lack of funds by focusing on having a good time.  They are foregoing buying houses and cars, and aren't taking the foreign travel they'd grown fond of.  Instead the Irish are spending more of their dwindling money on eating out, going to the pub, and other social activities with friends and family.  That's what's so endearing about the Irish.  If the world was ending in 10 minutes they would all rush to the pub to hoist one last round with their mates, before hugging their towels and putting on their peril-sensitive sunglasses.

Green Energy, Red Ink - Things were looking good for green energy when oil zoomed past $100 per barrel and gas was over 4 bucks a gallon.  It all suddenly made economic sense as well as being good for Mother Earth.  It seemed like everyone was talking about solar power, plug-in hybrids, and biofuels.  Then along came the economic bust and it all rolled to a grinding halt.  It's only natural for people to stick with cheaper (though far less green) technologies when money is tight, however I feel that's detrimentally short-sighted.  Oil and gas prices are going to go up again, even if they remain depressed for some time due to the economy, and green technologies are essential to our future.  For a brief look at what green tech means to me, check out an earlier blog, 20 Megawatts.

Yes, times are tough for the Green.  Best then to take a tip from the Irish and spend time with friends.  But also be prepared for the worst.  Towels come in green, do peril-sensitive sunglasses?

Are You (Pink Floyd) Experienced?

If someone had told me in the heady days of my youth that I would one day pay to see a bunch of guys pretend to be Pink Floyd, I would have accused them of reckless substance abuse and written them off as hopeless idiots.

Yet yesterday, Friday March 13, at 8 pm, I found myself sitting in row 'U' at the Orpheum in Los Angeles, enjoying 'The Pink Floyd Experience' with my teenage son.  He was there because he loves the music and is a rabid guitar player.  I was there despite never really loving the music and never being more than merely interested as a player.

At some point, my son might have pondered why he'd come, since he was one of only a smattering of young people in the crowd.  Looking around the nearly sold-out house, I saw mostly a sea of gray.  Albeit an enthusiastic sea of gray, it must be said.

And well they might be.  The Faux Floyd performed many of the real band's best-loved hits and performed them with precision and panache, if not with the utmost soul of the songs' creators.  Of course, it's doubtful that the remaining original band members could (or would) give such faithful, pitch-perfect renditions of the tunes.  That's what makes tribute bands worth seeing.

The group's vocals, frequently a problem area for copycats, were anything but.  Main vocalists Graham Heath and Tom Quinn delivered the lines smoothly and accurately.  Both men also contributed the lion's share of guitar duties, with Quinn performing the complex and compelling leads of David Gilmour as if he was Gilmour's long-lost twin.  The solo in 'Comfortably Numb' was a highlight of the evening.

Quinn's bio states he was a disciple of Gilmour, but also lists Leslie West as an influence.  If he ever tires of the Pink Floyd Experience, I hope he follows with a Mountain Tribute.  Quinn also mentioned Joe Walsh as an inspiration, so maybe a doppelganger James Gang could be in the offing too?  The man does have his options...

If not as much in the spotlight, the other members of the band were equally important to the result, with excellent performances by all.  Bass player Gus Beaudoin set down a steady framework of rhythm alongside standout drummer John Staten, with keyboardist John Cox and sax player Jesse Molloy completing the soundscape.  Molloy contributed timely guitar and vocal backings to the mix as well.

The band played from 8 until 11 pm, with a 20 minute break in the middle, giving the mostly elderly fans ample opportunity for refreshments and that all-important bathroom session.  From the rich aroma filling the air, quite a few were using the break to augment the experience chemically too, although I couldn't see anyone actually lighting up. Perhaps the smells were just another part of the faux tableau, added to heighten the experience?  Dunno - the lines were long at the snack stands.

At the end of the show, as we all filed out, relatively orderly as befitted our dignified years, the band followed to meet and greet their fans in the Orpheum's lobby.  You would have thought it really was Pink Floyd and not just an Experience.

And my son?  He was riveted on the guitars and the bass the whole show, and seemed to thoroughly enjoy himself.  After all, he is a bigger fan of Pink Floyd than I.  

My great pleasure, aside from the beauty and thrill of the music, was watching the older generation and reflecting on what a great (if sometimes strange and bumpy) trip our lives have been.

That, and seeing an oversized inflated pink pig released to soar over the balcony.  Entertainment doesn't get much better than that ...

Bay City Wheelers

San Francisco is a city of marvelous contradictions - with a hip, active, and progressive youth culture surrounding a more staid, though worldly, up-class core, The City By The Bay continues that duality in the way it's people get around. 

More than most other large cities in the US,  San Francisco embraces two wheels.  Even bursting at the seams with options like buses, trolleys, light rail, cable cars, and taxis, the people of The City like to ride their motorcycles, scooters, and bicycles.

Walking just one four block area there recently, I counted 3 bicycle shops.  I was passed by at least a dozen motorcycles, and I passed more parked in the street.  And there were scooters parked up on sidewalks everywhere.  And this in a city with tight traffic, slippery tram rails, and steep hills - all nasty things to deal with on two wheels, whether powered by fossil fuels or your own flesh pumps.

Maybe it's the commuting and parking challenges residents face that lead them to two wheeled alternatives in greater numbers than elsewhere.  It's not an easy thing to find a space to park a car in San Francisco.  I once spent the better part of an entire evening stubbornly searching out a spot near a friend's house to park my car.   Any local would have given up and parked illegally and accepted a ticket, but that idea didn't register with my LA-trained brain.

It could be the hassle of driving and parking a car, but I don't really think so.  I believe I know the real reason two wheeled travel is so popular in San Francisco:  it's just plain cool.  And fun. 

For bikes with motors, the hills are like ramps to the heavens, a rush-up to the precipice of Knievel-like jumps.  For pedal pushers, they are a personal Everest or Tour de France hill climb.  For both the downhill run is like, well, a downhill ski run, or a parachute jump.  If you hit the right sort of bumps it could be like flying. Thrills, fun.

If there are more reasons to be found for San Francisco's two-wheeled love affair, I don't need to find them.  It's simply cool to see.  From tattered 70's era Honda CB550 Fours, through the latest Ducati superbikes, from Vespas to Made-in-China unknown scooters, from exotic $4,000 bicycles to ancient Schwinns, it's a visual (and aural) treat for lovers of things two-wheeled.

If you travel on two-wheels, or hope to, visit The City By The Bay.  Sit outside a coffee shop in North Beach, or hang out in the Haight, and observe.  You will be inspired...

Mergers and Collisions

Waking this morning to the news that yet another drug-maker has taken over yet another drug-maker, I spilt my coffee, coughed a chunk of bagel out of my right (I'm sure) lung, developed a pounding headache, and went in search of drugs.

Not that long ago, Pfizer, the unstoppable Borg collective of pharmaceutical companies, assimilated Wyeth.  This time around Merck is swallowing Schering-Plough.  It won't be long before New Jersey is just one giant drug company, it's only a matter of which one - Pfizer or Merck.  I wouldn't bet against the Borg.

But wait. Mergers are good, do I hear you saying?  They focus resources to best effect? Mergers are inevitable and necessary in this economy?  Are you crazy? Are you Jim Cramer?

True, ideally a merger could just possibly result in a combination of the best qualities of two companies rolled into one streamlined company shed of the worst qualities of the previous two.  In the biopharmaceutical space, it could mean more resources to get needed drugs to market.  Sadly, the result is often more like a focused collision that slices away jobs, dumps potential drug candidates, and gives upper management of either company who wish (or are asked) to leave magnificent parachutes of silver and gold.  Mostly gold.

You can be sure that jobs at Schering will be lost.  Maybe a few at Merck as well.  Some drugs with potential to help disease sufferers will be dropped to focus the line.  With luck these will be licensed out for development by smaller companies (if there are any left), but some will be shelved and forgotten.  And some patients will never see relief.  

But that's business.  Only blockbuster drugs with the potential for billions in sales will do for a truly large pharmaceutical company.  That promising but costly to develop treatment for the distressing disease with only the potential for maybe 50-100 million in sales?  Not worth the time or capital. We've got stockholders to please.  Sorry.

Man, do I ever have a headache...

Chicago Hope

Not the old TV series of that name - the one in which Mandy Patinkin performed one of his patented disappearing acts after the first season.  No, I'm talking here about the Hope which has come out of the City of Big Shoulders in the person of Barack Obama, now deep into his first 100 days as our President.

Hope is critical.  Hope is what we need most at the moment, as a Nation, and it sure seems the World needs it too.  And the World seems to be looking at us - at President Obama, if not for answers, then at least leadership in Hope.  

We and the World haven't received much more from America's leaders in the past 8 years than admonitions to be very afraid, but trust in them to do what is necessary.  Being very afraid was easy to do, but trust in Bush and his people was a hard ask given their obvious self-serving, condescending take on governing.  And trust became all but impossible after the lies used to justify Iraq began collapsing one by one.

Barack Obama has our trust, and that of the World, for now.  His brief tenure hasn't been perfect, with missteps here and there due to, perhaps, inexperience, but just as likely the result of the complexity of the challenges that face his administration.  There have been those mistakes, both in substance and in tone, that have given pause to us and encouragement to those who wish him to fail.  Even so, the Hope he has brought with him from Chicago continues to hold sway.  We are forgiving and resilient in our support - for now.

If President Obama appoints Mandy Patinkin for any critical post, however, all bets are off.

Instant Depression

Just when you think it's gotten about as bad as it can get ...

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the folks that ensure you can get your money out of the bank when you need it, have just told US banks that it needs to raise the fees they pay for the coverage or else the fund will become insolvent.  Seems the brilliant idea of raising the protection limit for individual accounts from $100,000 to $250,000 turned out to be something of a miscalculation, leading to a more rapid drawing down of the fund than expected as banks have failed.

To you and me all this means our savings would be at risk should the fund be exhausted and our banks fail.  Instant Depression.

Odd thing is, why isn't this being dealt with in the gigantic stimulus package just approved?  Surely you could fit another $22 billion or so into that massive bill?

And why is this particular dirty laundry being announced publicly by the FDIC?  Is this a case of too many threads for Obama's crew to tie? Entrenched bureaucracy trying to get attention from the new boss? 

It doesn't make sense to burden the banks further just as we are adding to the bailout funds, and it surely makes no sense to shout this from the media mountaintops, unless some brinksmanship politicking is being played out, and the exposure and resultant citizen terror is a key tool.

Perhaps this is just a routine government misstep that will be quickly smoothed over? Let's hope so, or else, with Citi dropping below a buck in stock value and other banks getting close to the precipice, depositors (that's us) will be very uncomfortable letting our money stay put without confidence in FDIC protection.

Babble-On 14

Hump day musings on news that may have slipped under your radar. Don't panic, there's not a jot of economic grousing in the lot.  Well, maybe a jot.

Panic at 30,000 feet - Cheapo CEO Michael O'Leary, wants his Ireland-based airline Ryan Air to charge passengers to use the toilet.  Not content to charge for baggage, food, drink, and pillows, the no-frills service seeks to boost profits by taking advantage of the weak bladders of older fliers.  This action will be followed by the in-flight sale of adult diapers.  What's next? Charging for seat belts and air?

Panic at ground level - For those stalwart travelers somehow able to avoid wetting themselves on Ryan Air, there's bad news when you arrive at your destination. Diseases. Lot's of 'em. From well-known killers like Malaria, Typhus, and Yellow Fever, through less fatal but nonetheless tiresome plagues like 'Montezuma's Revenge'.  Some have unfamiliar names, like Norovirus, or Chikungunya (also a virus), and you will want them to remain unfamiliar.  Hey, how's this for a Ryan Air moneymaker?  In-flight innoculations!  (With every shot you get a token for the toilet).

Panic at TED - So, you aren't planning to fly Ryan Air or travel to some disease-ridden destination anytime soon?  Feeling left out?  Bill Gates has got your back.  The Microsoft founder and all-around Geek God opened a suitcase full of mosquitoes at the Technology, Entertainment, and Design (TED) conference back in early February.  Gate's aim was to publicize the dangers of Malaria, which mosquitoes transmit from human to human, but his actions resulted mostly in lame (and systematically incorrect) quips about Microsoft and 'bugs'.  [Note for non-entomologists: mosquitoes are not bugs.  Remember - all bugs are insects, but not all insects are bugs. So there.]

Don't panic, but keep your head well down until the weekend.

Visiting The Wrecks

[as intro, cue the theme from the movie 'Titanic' - or maybe 'The Abyss'...]

Sitting at the bottom of oceans around the world, are the wrecks of once proud sea-conquering ships.  Visiting these monuments to the ultimate preeminence of Nature over Man requires a willingness to expose oneself to darkness, pressure, cold, and death.

Not dissimilar to investing in the fallen behemoths of industry ...

Diving into the financial depths takes the bravado of Mike Nelson, the dedication of Chatterton and Kohler, and the audaciousness of Buffet (Warren, not Jimmy).

If you take the plunge you will see, as you approach the bottom, apparitions appearing from the ghostly dark.  The broken hulks of financial goliaths like the Lehman, the Bear Stearns, and the Washington Mutual resolve into view, ruined 'instruments' spewing out of ruptures in their fiscal structure.  An enticing panorama drawing you in...

Think before penetrating these wrecks, though.  

Inside, the tangle of failed machinery will confuse and entrap the unwary diver.  And the most valuable parts were already salvaged by the good ship JP Morgan Chase, before the rest was consigned to the depths, so there is little reason to risk a distressing death by entering.  You may find only worthless common stock, bled out from investors forced overboard before the salvage.

But wait, you ask, what of those ships only wounded?  Those that lie only half-submerged in the world's fiscal seas, foundered only partially by the economic perfect storm?  The great ships AIG, Fannie Mae, the Citi, and the Bank of America.  The dreadnoughts GE, Ford, and GM.  The fast cruiser Chrysler.  Can these be safely visited by plucky and ever-hopeful investment divers?

Personally I would rather dive a single tank to the Andrea Doria, but for a less depressive answer look to the world's top wreck divers.  If as properly trained and well-equipped with the right gear and tools as those daring souls, the truly adventurous investor might visit the grounded vessels and shallower wrecks safely.  

Just watch out for the sharks that circle...

[cue 'Mac the Knife' for the outro, as performed by Bernie Madoff ... ]

Poetry Break: Opportunity Knocks

[In disaster there is often opportunity - hideously disguised, true, but opportunity nonetheless]

When Opportunity Knocks

You should listen

Not hide in the closet, or

Run for your life

Not imagine the worst, and

Fear disaster and strife

When Opportunity Knocks

You should listen with care

Listen with ears, with eyes, 

Even with hair!

Listen with everything you've got

Listen like there's no tomorrow

'Cause if you miss the knock, knock,

Knocking at your door

If you wail with dread

If you fall on the floor and cover your head

If you hide and miss this knock at your door,

Opportunity might not come back - 

and Knock, anymore!

[Of course the trick is knowing whether what's knocking is Opportunity or The Wuggly Ump]