Quaking

The big quake in Nepal that has caused so much death, destruction, and disruption, is a potent reminder to those of us living on or near the 'Ring of Fire' that we are vulnerable.  What we see in faraway corners of the World reflected on our TV screens has meaning beyond the obvious human sympathy.

In the past week we've had a few 3-plus sized quakes in the 'Greater LA Area', and those little jolts are like pinpricks against our calloused sensibilities (we've had a long time since our last 'big one' to forget and grow dismissive of the danger.)

It is only a matter of time before either LA or San Francisco have our number come up on the wheel of misfortune that circles the world's big fault zones, and we have another Big Quake.  Chances are, thanks to higher standards of building codes, the damage here won't be as complete and devastating as seen in Nepal, or in Haiti before that.  And chances are also good that our big one will not be as BIG as that 9.5 Quake in Japan - and it had better not be because nothing is built here to withstand that large a jolt.

As a final ramble through my thoughts on this subject,  I'd like to ponder why we have such a fascination with these sorts of horrific happenings.  There have been a number of films made about earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, and tornadoes - there is a new one called 'San Andreas' due out this Friday in fact.

I find this disturbing, especially since I feel the attraction of this kind of entertainment too, and that fact depresses me, but I guess what's happening is we are all 'Whistling Past The Graveyard' in hopes that wallowing in the worst case scenarios will magically prevent them.  Did the residents living near Fukushima fail to watch enough disaster flicks?

The Maybes of May

Its just about this time of year, when we are either well into Spring or fiscal Q2, depending on your ability to separate Life from Work, that some of us start second-thinking about the way the Year will go.  We start saying to ourselves ... "Maybe "

Maybe I should take that trip to the Isle of Man TT ...

Maybe I should change jobs ...

Maybe I ought to join a gym before summer ...

Maybe I should stop watching so much television, or cut back on the coffee, or alcohol, or all of those things at once.

Maybe I should read more, or blog more, or learn Spanish.

Maybe its time to move to another State, maybe another Country, preferably one where they speak Spanish.

These equivocations can go on and on, at least until the Summer is old and even the most optimistic of us are forced to admit 'it's too late this year', and the 'Maybes' get reconfigured as New Year's Resolutions.

And, as dependable as the ever so slowly diminishing rotation of the Earth about its axis, around this May-time next year we will start questioning those Resolutions and the Maybes will come out again.

It is my fervent but realistic hope that All of Us can make a Maybe or two come true this Year, if that is what we truly want.

OMG 2015

 By now I've stopped dating my checks '2014' by mistake,  so its about time to take a look at this year 2015 we find ourselves in...

... cue swirling intercut images of burning Jordanian pilots, terrorist attacks in France, Netanyahu 'addressing' Congress, and Jon Stewart breaking up with the Daily Show

Enough!  Can't we go back and stay a while in 2014?

What? Not possible? Okay then, can we fast forward to 2016?  Wait ... that's an election year and I'm not ready to go through THAT again, not yet.

Oh well, a slow hopeful plod through the remaining three quarters of 2015 then.  A year in which we must hope nothing worse (and maybe better) than what we've already seen comes our way:

No greater escalation of the Ukrainian War ...
Fewer and less lethal Terrorist Attacks ...
Calmer heads in Congress willing to compromise for the good of the populace ...
An Iran nuclear agreement that will prevent the 'Islamic Bomb' but gets Iran the e-power it needs...
Increasing mutual understanding and sympathy between Hamas and Israel (we can dream) ...
Respect for women in India, Pakistan, and other medieval places (its 2015, damn it) ...
A North Korea that can laugh at itself ...
- and - John Oliver seeing the light and ditching his great HBO show for an even greater gig as the new Daily Show host ...

If even one of those things could be said to be true of 2015 when we are sitting around in March 2016 and looking back, then maybe this year won't be such a disaster.

Unless that Big Space Rock finally hits ...
Or the Large Hadron Collider turns Earth into a New Big Bang...

The Goodness of Even-numbered Years ... Or Not

I have always believed the best years were those where the year number can be evenly divided by 2.  I have also believed the best years to be those in which my age could be divided by 2.

Sadly, those don't completely coincide.

Which could explain why my best times seem to be in even numbered years before my birthday, or in odd-numbered years after.  Since my birthday falls in the first quarter, the very best times should come during odd-numbered years beginning in Q2.

If any of that pure superstition rings true then 2015 beginning in April should be one of the good times.

And I will appreciate the break.  Not that things have been bad for me personally - the most I can claim is to being a little adrift of my goals, and to experiencing (for the first time really) that inevitable physical decline that comes with accumulated years hanging around Planet Earth.

No, not too bad for me personally, but by association I've suffered in sympathy with others the stream of body blows the people of the world have taken in 2014.  Although none have been Tyson-esque knockdowns like the Earthquake/Tsunami combination punches in 2004 and 2011, the 2014 pummeling has seemed relentless, and enough to have us drooping in the corner attended by a frowning and skeptical cut man.

And a few of the blows have been real brain-rattlers, bad enough to raise fears of dementia on a global, societal scale.  I'm thinking Ukraine and the public unveiling of Putin's New Russian Empire, the flare-up of long simmering suspicion and intransigent hatred in Palestine, ISIL/ISIS/IS in Syria and Iraq, the Ebola outbreak, and the ongoing economic malaise that threatens to undermine a livable life for so many.

Those and all the associated jabs and gut punches that accompanied mean we need a good 2015 - or at least a few rounds respite during the year.

So, may I wish anyone who stumbles across this writing if not a Happy, then at least a Happier New Year in 2015, with a chance to heal a bit and catch your breath; maybe even a chance to effect some repairs and to even improve a little after the rubble of 2014 is cleared away.

You Need the break, and You Deserve it.

Me? ... I'm counting on the final 3/4th's of 2015

Neverending Stories

There are some tales that come back again and again, or that come and just won't go away ...

Limited Engagement - We're BAA-ACK!  In Iraq, that is.  It seems like only yesterday we left thinking the Iraqi Army was in good shape to control their own destiny.  How silly of us to be so hopeful.  Now we are involved in 'limited' air attacks on fighters and weapons of the Islamic State (IS).  I don't know about the rest of you, but I wish they'd change that acronym back to ISIS or something, since 'IS' brings to my mind images of the bored voices at the end of a tech support call.   The Prez tells us there will be no resumption of US forces on the ground in Iraq, but, well ..., if we really want Iraq to NOT be a medieval theocratic rogue state and/or carved into three pieces that's exactly what we might have to do.

You First ... No, You First - As it ever was, the Muddle East continues to prove the toughest worldwide political nut to crack, most likely because there is so much at stake for the participants.  After a 3-day cease fire in which both sides licked their wounds, buried their dead, and sorted through the rubble of their neighborhoods - all much worse for the Gazans but a toll for the Israelis too, the violence resumed.  Israel says Hamas (Leaders of Gaza and a certified Terrorist group, according to Israel and the US) fired rockets even before the cease fire officially ended.  Hamas denied this but followed on with dozens of rockets, I guess to make a point or because they buy them in batches and  need to use up the remnants.  With that Israel walked out of the Egyptian-brokered peace talks, stating they would not return until Hamas 'cut it out with those rockets already, enough is enough!'  Immediately Hamas said it would not cut it out with those rockets unless Israel came back to the table with concessions Hamas wants, like the ability to cross into Egypt and into Israel freely.  That last bit is not going to seem like a smart idea to the Israelis who've just finished destroying tunnels Hamas fighters used to sneak into Israel.  On the other hand, Hamas doesn't have much reason to negotiate if Israel doesn't give them something they can show their people was worth all the bloodshed to get.  Not good positions from which to start peace talks.  Just like always, it seems.

Run, Hilary, Run - There's something about people in general that makes us wish to form dynasties.  I guess when we get something that seems good, we want to perpetuate it, even if that something is Bill Clinton and the 'good' looks better in hindsight than it did at the time, and even if perpetuating it means electing the former first lady, Senator, and Secretary of State, Hilary. She's only run for President once before, so the part of this story that is neverending is probably Bill Clinton.  OK, he was a democratic President and he helped swing the needle back from its conservative setting under Reagan, but not as far as it should have, and besides he had the self-control of a barnyard rooster.  Hilary would seem fresher without him and those of us with long memories wouldn't have to suffer the PTSD caused by that whole saga of the intern and the cigar. So, Run, Hilary, Run, but leave Bill in the barnyard and maybe the Clinton story will be neverending (in a good way).

Contagion 2014

I believe it's time to conclude that technological ability has finally and completely outstripped logic and common sense.  Exactly when clinical calm is needed, we go a little crazy in an overly-confident-in-our-own-abilities sort of way. 

I mean, we've recently proven we can't even keep track of deadly smallpox samples from the 70's, vials of which turned up in some sort of forgotten government lab storage room within spitting distance of Congress.  So what makes us think we are capable of safely transporting Ebola-infected patients from Central Africa all the way to Atlanta? Think of all the things that could go wrong.  Look at the people falling ill with the disease in Nigeria, spread from an infected patient who had been (supposedly) isolated.  Are we so blind to think we are infallible (queue the tape on those smallpox vials)?

It's hard to imagine it being better to bring these patients all the way to the US rather than transporting a medical team and appropriate equipment to Africa.  Or do we have tools we can't or don't want to share?  There have been reports of an experimental medicine being given to the two patients in Atlanta - a medicine which has not yet been approved and is in vanishingly short supply (or so we are told).  I guess we don't want the thousands at risk in Africa to get the idea we can save them.

One of the core principles of epidemiology formulated since the late 1800s tells us that at a minimum you absolutely do not move sick people to unaffected population areas.  It is ethically unforgivable to expose unsuspecting people and risk a widening of the outbreak.

But then again this is 2014, and US Scientists have been working on Ebola since the late 80s.  In the mid-1990s they discovered the lethal factor in Ebola, and this new miracle medicine was devised by generating antibodies to cloned components of the virus.  Its clear somebody's been driving research into a very rare, geographically isolated (well, it was) virus with some clear purpose in mind; and that purpose was not making money in the clinic (with so few outbreaks normally you'd never sell enough).

Maybe in that light this is a golden opportunity for all those people who've worked all these years to show what they can do.  Epidemiology (and logic) be damned!

Dropping Ballast

You may have read in the news last week that a prominent West Coast Biotech has decided to close two of its locations in the US and cut 15% of its workforce, mostly affecting US staff.  And it announced this move in the same press conference in which it reported excellent earnings.

You may also have noticed that stock market analysts cheered the announcement and investors responded to move the company's shares to an all-time high, if only for a brief while.

That response may be because it is Business 101 to manage profit in a more tightly competitive market where sales may increase more slowly than before by cutting the bottom line, meaning staff and infrastructure.  But when that bottom line move guts communities and leaves skilled workers on the sidewalk it's a painfully sad event (even if the push out the door is done with velvet gloves, it's still a push).

It's even sadder when the hammer falls harder on US workers than the company's foreign workforce, especially considering the US is still that company's number 1 market, and likely to be so for some time to come.

Even so, this company is just doing what is considered the best way for a business to operate today; nothing unusual at all.  But that is precisely why this move bothers me so much - that businesses consider this standard procedure.

Consider there are two ways to manage the situation this West Coast Bio faced: What they did - cut costs ahead of need; or, use their excellent earnings to buy some time to figure out how to better utilize those US locations and staff to make the company even stronger and more competitive.

To take the second path involves some complex thinking and planning, and then execution.  Taking the first path is easy, and I guess that at least partly explains the decision. But there's more to it I think.  There's the impression that this company - like many modern corporations, considers only the Board of Directors and Executive Management to be 'the company', with employees just resources to add or drop like ballast.